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QSLI:Profit warning on FY15results;PT cut to RMB20.0;maintaining Hold

发布时间:2016-02-03    研究机构:德意志银行

FY15E EPS to drop by 57-70% YoY。

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (QSLI) has guided for FY15E net income ofRMB375-562.5m, down 57-70% YoY due to: 1) a widening loss in the chemicalsegment, 2) asset impairments on subsidiaries, 3) an increase in interestexpenses and 4) a drop in potash sales volume. The FY15E results will likely be56-66% worse than consensus expectations. We cut our earnings and pricetarget to RMB20.0, factoring lower potash sales volume in FY16/17E.

What went wrong in FY15?

According to our calculations, QSLI potash sales volume dropped 8% YoYin 2H15E. QSLI recorded potash sales volume growth in the first ninemonths of 2015, which implies a big dip in 4Q potash sales.

Inventory accounts for a large portion of write-downs, with sluggishchemical prices in Qinghai. For example, QSLI said that its ADC ASP haddropped by half by the end of 2015 vs. 1H15. Furthermore, we factor assetimpairments from subsidiaries of c.RMB100m in FY15E.

Hence, we slash our FY15E EPS by 59% on: 1) lower potash sales volume (cutby 6% or 290kton while our original FY15E potash sales volume estimate was7% below QSLI’s target), 2) a larger chemical segment loss (gross margin -35%vs. original -29%) and 3) higher write-downs (up another RMB320m).

Valuation and risks。

We cut our FY16/17E EPS by 12%/9% on lower potash sales; hence, our PTfalls to RMB20.0. Our revised PT implies 1.4x FY16E P/B. The stock trades at1.28x FY16E P/B, -1SD below the historical average; hence, we see balancedrisk/reward on: 1) an earnings recovery in FY16/17E, driven by narrowingchemical losses with lower natural gas costs and 2) strong potash capacitygrowth of 43% by 2H16E. Risk: sluggish chemical prices and demand couldlead to further inventory write-downs and asset impairments in FY16E.

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